How numbers stack up

In the Maharashtra Assembly, the BJP is the big brother in the alliance, holding 132 MLAs in the 288-member House. Shinde Sena trails far behind with 57 MLAs. Following the alliance’s return to power in 2024, Fadnavis replaced Shinde as Chief Minister and he had to contend with a Deputy post. While reports had then claimed the Thane strongman was not happy, he had little choice given how numbers stood.

Since then, many within the Mahayuti privately admit that BJP has been calling the shots in the government, thanks to its numerical edge.

The picture in Parliament, however, is different. Of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, the BJP and Sena (UBT) hold nine each, while the Shinde Sena holds seven. If the Sena (UBT) MPs switch to Shinde Sena, it would have 13 MPs, equal to the Congress. While this would weaken the opposition ranks, it is also likely to fuel a tussle within the NDA in Maharashtra.

“The immediate loss will obviously be Uddhav Thackeray’s. But the bigger political impact may be elsewhere. If Shinde’s numbers rise in Parliament, the state leadership of BJP can no longer look at him the same way it has after the Assembly elections,” said Sanjay Patil, political observer and a research assistant at Mumbai University, whose PhD thesis is on the Shiv Sena.

Uddhav Thackeray is battling another crisis in his party’s ranks

The Timing

According to political observers, the timing of this rebellion is crucial. For nearly two years after the 2022 Sena split, Shinde did not attempt to engineer any further split in Uddhav Thackeray’s camp. But the 2024 Assembly election results sharply changed the BJP-Sena power balance in Maharashtra and Shinde realised that he must boost his party’s strength.

The rebellion by 20 Trinamool Congress MPs from West Bengal acted as a catalyst for Operation Tiger, a term used by Shinde Sena leaders to describe the ongoing rebellion.

The Trinamool Congress mutiny, weeks after the party’s defeat in Bengal polls, showed how quickly tables can turn in politics. With more and more regional powers losing ground, Shinde knows his numbers alone decide how important he is to the BJP leadership, political observers say.

The BJP-led NDA currently has around 293 MPs in Lok Sabha, and BJP holds 240. Shinde’s present tally of 7 MPs does not make him among the BJP’s biggest partners. With Trinamool’s 20 MPs joining the Nationalist Citizens Party of India, a hardly-known political outfit, Shinde Sena’s position within the alliance would weaken further. But if the Sena (UBT) MPs boost its ranks, the number of Shinde Sena MPs would nearly double, improving his standing with the BJP leadership.

Shinde Sena claims masterstroke

If Sena (UBT) ranks split again, it would be Shinde’s second big blow to Uddhav Thackeray, who lost his party’s name and symbol to his once trusted lieutenant. But such a development would establish Shinde as a master strategist.

A senior Sena leader said many people had begun writing off Shinde after the Assembly elections in which the BJP emerged as the bigger force in Maharashtra. “But Shinde has once again shown that he knows how to change the game when people think the battle is over. Shinde hit a masterstroke.”

Several leaders within the Sena say the developments in Delhi show Shinde remains the NDA’s key strategist despite the BJP’s growing dominance.

The Sena (UBT), however, sees wider implications of the rebellions in its parliamentary ranks. Party leader Sushma Andhare recently argued that any split should not be seen just as Uddhav Thackeray’s defeat. “This is not Uddhav Thackeray’s defeat. This is Devendra Fadnavis’s defeat.”

The Sena vs BJP backdrop

The events in Delhi are playing out against the backdrop of a tussle within the NDA in Maharashtra. Following the Assembly polls, the BJP and Fadnavis have enjoyed a far stronger position inside Mahayuti as compared to allies, Sena and NCP. Tensions have repeatedly surfaced over minister appointments, seat-sharing for MLC elections, appointments to corporations and boards, planning for local body polls and the BJP’s expansion in areas traditionally seen as Shiv Sena strongholds.

A stronger Shinde, especially one controlling more MPs than BJP, could make it harder for the Maharashtra BJP leadership to deal with him from the position of strength it has enjoyed since the Assembly elections.

In simple terms, a successful split hurts Uddhav Thackeray immediately. But Shinde gains more than just a win over his former boss. At a time when BJP has tightened its grip over Maharashtra politics, a number boost in Parliament could allow Shinde to negotiate with the BJP from a better stronger position than he has enjoyed in the past couple of years.