Sule’s remarks have virtually set the cat among the pigeons. Several Opposition leaders whom The Indian Express spoke to appeared unsure of the INDIA bloc standing together in the event of the NDA government making another bid to push through the Bill during the four-week-long Monsoon Session beginning Monday.

The NCP (SP) has nine MPs – eight in the Lok Sabha and one in the Rajya Sabha – in Parliament.

With three vacancies, the present strength of the Lok Sabha is 540, including two MPs who are in jail, making the two-third mark 360. In April, 528 MPs had voted and the two-third mark was 352. The government had then secured the support of 298 MPs and the Opposition bagged 230 votes. The NDA had 293 MPs in the Lok Sabha then, and after the splits in the Trinamool Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT), its tally is now 319. If the NCP (SP) supports the Bill, the NDA tally will go up to 327, 33 short of the two-third mark, with the BJP hoping to bridge the gap with support from more parties and abstentions by some.

In the Rajya Sabha, 242 of the 245 seats are occupied. By-elections to three seats from Bengal are to be held on July 24, and all three seats are set to go to the NDA. The two-thirds mark after this in the House will be 164, in case each member votes, and the NDA will be at 155 – just nine short of a simple majority. If the NCP (SP) also backs it, the NDA will cross it, reaching 156.

Sources in the government said it would bring back the Bill only after incorporating changes sought by the regional parties. Top ministers said the move would be made after ensuring a two-third majority in both the Houses.

Sources said Speaker Om Birla is likely to give official recognition to the breakaway factions of the Sena (UBT) and TMC in the Lok Sabha before Parliament meets on July 20.

Some Opposition leaders argued that Sule’s remarks were only aimed at sending a message to her party MPs who are restive since the recent split in the Sena (UBT). “On the one hand, she is saying that if the revised Bill ensures a uniform 50% increase in seats across all states, there would be little reason to oppose it. At the same time, she is saying that her party has not taken a decision and a final view would be taken only after discussions within her party and the INDIA bloc… The message, it seems, is to her MPs, that they need not go to the NDA side…,” a senior Congress leader said.

However, the concern in the Opposition camp is that other parties are coming around to the same view. “Many of the regional parties, especially those from the Hindi belt, were agreeable to the idea of a uniform 50% increase in seats. So I really don’t know what stance the Samajwadi Party (SP) and JMM may adopt now,” a leader said.

Asked about this, an SP MP said that the party cannot side with the BJP-led government given that Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh are just months away.

However, another leader said that the alternative is also tricky for the party. “The SP cannot be seen as opposing legislation that will increase UP’s representation in the Lok Sabha. So we are expecting a neutral stance, if not a favourable one.”

One Opposition leader said there were also tactical options available such as staging a walkout. By reducing the total number of members required to be present and voting to pass the Constitution amendment Bill, this too would help the government.

A source in the government said: “Parties like the DMK agreed to the proposal (of increasing 50 % seats for every state) in our discussions. But they decided to vote against the Bill under pressure from the Congress. Now that most of the regional parties, including the DMK, SP, JMM and RJD do not seem to be in a mood to stay with the Congress, there is no reason for them to oppose the Bill if we add the clause.”

Sources in the DMK said the party could “either back the Bill or abstain” depending on the government’s response to their demands. Talking to The Indian Express earlier this week, DMK leader K Kanimozhi acknowledged her party has been in discussions with the BJP and the government over the proposed legislation.

The DMK, incidentally, was one of the most formidable voices in the INDIA bloc, particularly on the issue of delimitation. “It is for the party high command to state our position. And it will be only on July 19 that we will know which Bills the government wants to introduce. I can’t say anything before that,” DMK Rajya Sabha MP Trichy Siva told The Indian Express when asked about how the party would vote.

As it is, the Opposition benches in the Lok Sabha will sport a new look when the Monsoon Session begins. The DMK, which has 22 MPs in the Lok Sabha, will sit separately, as demanded by it after the Congress decision to part ways with it and back the Vijay government in Tamil Nadu. The TMC is a diminished party, with 20 of its 28 MPs now in the BJP-friendly rebel faction. The Sena (UBT) has taken a hit with six of its MPs joining the Shiv Sena, leaving it with three MPs.

In the Rajya Sabha too, the Opposition is a depleted bloc, with seven MPs of the Aam Aadmi Party, three of the TMC and one of the BJD having switched sides to the BJP.

Reflecting the Opposition’s angst, senior Congress leader P Chidambaram in a post on X Tuesday asked the DMK and NCP (SP) to stand with them. “After splitting the TMC, the BJP is reportedly wooing the NCP(SP) and the DMK to garner the crucial votes to support (the new Bill). The NCP(SP) and DMK have been clear-headed about the real purpose of the failed Bill and it is expected that they will stand firm in the future too. Any support to a new version of the failed Bill — whose real purpose is delimitation — will be a betrayal of their own conscience,” he wrote.